Use our solo mining calculator to easily and individually calculate the probability of finding a valid Bitcoin block as a solo miner based on various factors. Have fun calculating and good luck!
If you want to find out more about the math behind this calculator, take a look at our free blocktrainer forum here.
If you want to calculate the probability of finding a valid Bitcoin block, you often do not take into account the growth of the overall hashrate in the network. It is therefore assumed that the hashrate of the rest of the network remains constant over the entire period under consideration. This is not a problem for shorter periods of time, as the computing power in the network does not double overnight, but the longer the time horizon is extended, the more unrealistic the result becomes.
For this reason, the Solo Mining calculator assumes exponential growth of the hashrate by default. Strictly speaking, the hashrate is assumed to double every 2 years (i.e. annual factor √2 ≈ 1.41), which roughly applies to the data from recent years and can also be more or less justified by Moore's law.
Of course, this is only a suggestion. All statements about the future development of the hashrate in the Bitcoin network are pure speculation. The annual factor can therefore be adjusted as desired and, of course, completely deactivated. It is merely a matter of being aware of the influence of hashrate development so as not to get too comfortable with sometimes deceptively high probabilities. For example, the probability of finding a valid block with an Antminer S19 Pro (110 TH/s) within 50 years is currently over 50%, which is obviously very high. However, if the proposed growth factor is included, this shrinks to less than 5%.
Anyone who plays around with the Solo Mining calculator will sooner or later make an interesting observation. If you choose a longer and longer period of time with a constant hashrate, then the probability increases, as expected. Nothing unusual so far.
However, as soon as you keep increasing the time period with the growth factor activated, the probability increases more and more slowly until at some point it approaches a fixed value and no longer moves from the spot. This is not a computer error, but actually the case, as the remaining hashrate in the network eventually multiplies exponentially, while your own hashrate remains constant (low). At some point, the ratio becomes so huge that it no longer has any influence on the probability.
For long-term solo mining, this means that there is a point at which it is simply no longer "worth it", unless you reinvest in better mining hardware to compensate for the sharp increase in the hashrate in the network.
