In our Blocktrainer 1×1 series, we have already discussed money per se, its history and the properties of good money and which problems it solves (keyword: barter/"double coincidence of needs"). We also discussed the fact that gold is a relatively good form of money, as it has all the important properties. It is therefore hardly surprising that economies have at some point started to use gold as money or to peg their currencies to gold. However, for reasons that will be discussed later in this article, this so-called "gold standard" was abolished. As Prof. Dr. Saifedean Ammous describes in his book "The Bitcoin Standard", from today's perspective, it no longer makes sense to return to a monetary system backed by gold if an economy wants to use good money as its national currency again. It makes no sense because in today's world we have a kind of digital gold in the form of Bitcoin, which has several other advantages over the physical precious metal.
The first money that resembled the small change in your wallet was created before the birth of Christ, when the art of forging and melting down metals was discovered. This made it possible to cast small, lightweight metallic coins, which were very practical for use as money. Gold was a popular metal to cast into coin form due to its rarity and durability. Because it is so difficult to find/source and cannot be chemically produced, the supply of available gold is also very slow to increase. Combine all these properties and you have a material that is suitable as a store of value. Of course, it didn't take long for people to figure this out. So it was that King Croesus commissioned gold coins in Greece over 2500 years ago and became famous for his legendary wealth.
The Roman general Gaius Julius Caesar was also the issuer of a coin containing some gold as early as the first century BC. Resourceful fraudsters, however, began to file off small parts of these coins in order to cast them into new coins. This ultimately led to high inflation and the loss of value of these coins.
So even though (gold) coins had been around for a long time, it was not until the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries that the link between gold and money really became significant. These centuries were characterized by rapid progress in the areas of communication and transport. Technologies such as the telegraph and the railroad made it easier than ever for people and goods to get from A to B. This in turn resulted in the need for more convenient payment options such as checks or invoices. The difficulty, however, was convincing both merchants and consumers that the paper they now held in their hands actually had value. So how do you tackle this problem?
The answer from governments around the world was to issue paper money backed by valuable metals - especially gold. Britain was one of the pioneers and introduced the "gold standard" in 1717. Under this system, printed paper could be exchanged for physical gold at a bank. It was therefore to be seen as a kind of gold voucher. By 1900, more than 50 other nations had already adopted this standard, which meant that the value of gold continued to rise over time as more and more economies used it to back their money. This form of money is referred to as "hard/solid/good money".
As mentioned above, early coins were not really forgery-proof and could be used by fraudsters to shovel money into their own pockets. However, paper money also had a major flaw during the gold standard, because the gold, which was actually used as collateral, was hidden in the vaults of the (central) banks.
While this facilitated the exchange of paper money for gold, it also created a highly centralized system in which governments controlled the value of paper money. If they wanted to, they could increase the money supply at any time without increasing the corresponding amount of gold. In other words, the real value of paper money was completely at their mercy.
With the start of the First World War in 1914, almost all the major European powers decided to exploit this fact to finance their war machine. To finance the war, the belligerent countries simply printed new money. The catch, however, was that while the printing presses were humming, the corresponding amount of gold was not deposited in the vaults at the same time. Within a few weeks, this led to the countries involved in the First World War prohibiting the exchange of paper money for gold and abolishing the gold standard.
This had two effects:
Firstly, this source of cash allowed governments to fund their war efforts for another four years, thus shedding four more years of blood.
The second result of this money printing was that the value of existing currencies was greatly depreciated. The Austro-Hungarian crown, for example, fell by almost 70% against the Swiss franc - a currency that remained pegged to gold thanks to Switzerland's decision to remain neutral and sit out the war. Both factors would continue to play an important role in shaping economic life in post-war Europe.
When the First World War came to an end in 1918, the European powers involved in the fighting faced the problematic challenge of revaluing their currencies.
The obvious solution was to return to the gold standard, but a fair revaluation against gold would have been an extremely unpleasant admission of how little the currencies were now worth. A return to the old exchange rates was also not possible, as the paper currencies would have been overvalued. The result would have been a flood of citizens demanding gold for their paper money, which they in turn could have sold abroad at a profit.
This prompted governments to introduce so-called "fiat money". Fiat money is money that is only backed or secured by promises made by the issuing government(s) and no longer by gold or other valuable assets. The introduction of fiat money led to an era of "unsound" money, which was and still is characterized by governments' efforts to keep their currencies relatively stable through ever greater intervention in the economy.
This system also made it possible to finance the Second World War by expanding the money supply. As the war slowly drew to a close in the summer of 1944, the finance ministers and chairmen of the central banks of a total of 44 states of the later victorious powers met to discuss the economic and monetary order for the post-war period. As this landmark meeting took place in a small town called "Bretton Woods" in the US state of New Hampshire, the system agreed there became known as the "Bretton Woods System" or "Bretton Woods Agreement".
The basic idea of the Bretton Woods system was to link all the different currencies to the US dollar at fixed exchange rates, which in turn would be linked to the price of gold at a fixed exchange rate. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) was established to set and monitor these exchange rates. In addition, all participating countries were required to transport all their gold reserves to the USA so that they could be stored there to serve as collateral for the dollar.
In theory, the Bretton Woods system was therefore something of an extended copy of the gold standard that existed until 1914, as - supposedly - all currencies could have been exchanged for gold. Unfortunately, this only worked to a limited extent in practice. The US relaxed the self-imposed rules and inflated its own currency against gold, while other nations inflated their currencies against the dollar to finance economic expansion. Eventually, this hypocrisy and false pretense was completely dropped and gold was completely abandoned as the standard for the US dollar, as it was impossible to peg a rapidly inflating currency to gold. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon announced that dollars would no longer be convertible into gold. From now on, the value of currencies would be freely determined by the interplay of the world's major fiat currencies - with sometimes dire consequences brought about by this unhealthy/unsound monetary system...
Monetary policy based on unhealthy (fiat) money is associated with two major problems in particular: recessions and the endless accumulation of debt. Government interference in the market takes the form of central planning. And this is where the problem lies. No single person, agency, department or government ever has access to all the information necessary to understand the vast and ever-changing web of preferences, choices, costs and resources that make up an economy. And if you don't have that information, you're bound to make bad decisions - and that's exactly what governments do when they manipulate the money supply. Their interventions distort the markets, especially the capital markets, and in this way create so-called "boom and bust" cycles, i.e. cycles of steep upswings and rapid crashes. The boom is caused by artificially low interest rates or an inflation of the money supply, which incentivizes people to invest more and save less. A bubble follows and as soon as this bursts, the economy goes into recession.
The response of governments or economies to recessions is usually to use the theories of John Maynard Keynes, one of the most influential economists. He assumed that recessions only occur when spending within an economy is too low. If you want to counteract the recession, you have to get the population to spend more money.
To achieve this, you could either lower taxes or pump more money into the market. As it is usually the case that people do not necessarily immediately invest the money they would receive through tax savings in the purchase of (consumer) goods, governments usually decide to expand the money supply and flood the market with newly created money. As a result, saving becomes less attractive and leads to unwise and opportunistic investments by the population, which in turn leads to an increase in debt within the economy.
Ultimately, an unhealthy monetary system that can be manipulated by individual entities leads to recessions that are counteracted with the wrong measures, resulting in never-ending mountains of debt. As of today (October 2020), global debt amounts to more than $250,000,000,000,000 (= $250 trillion) - and rising.
In "The characteristics of good money", we have already discussed why Bitcoin is a kind of better digital gold and can be money based on its conceptual procurement. Nevertheless, Bitcoin still has a few hurdles to overcome in order to become a serious alternative. First and foremost, price volatility needs to be reduced. In 2017 alone, the price of a Bitcoin was between $750 and $20,000. As the supply of Bitcoin is limited to a maximum of just under 21 million BTC, these large price fluctuations are solely a result of the demand for Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin is a relatively new invention and therefore still a young asset means that the demand for BTC is (still) very variable. However, if Prof. Dr. Saifedean Ammous is to be believed, this problem will also diminish as the Bitcoin market grows.
If the BTC currency is to become a new standard, it must grow. But even with Bitcoin, growth would ultimately depend on relying increasingly on large, centralized institutions. This is a problem when a currency is designed to provide people with a system of exchange that is not dependent on government-recognized third parties such as banks.
There are also, of course, technical difficulties that need to be solved first. An increase in the transaction limit through second-layer technologies and an improvement in user-friendliness are examples of this. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has everything it needs to be good money, at least fundamentally.
Due to its characteristics, Bitcoin already provides the chassis for a modern, solid monetary system. Now we need to build a stable body around it to make the whole construct roadworthy. Only the passage of time will tell whether we succeed.