Bitcoin scratches the $90,000 mark - is this just the beginning?
The price of Bitcoin has shot through the roof in recent days. Today, the asset scratched the USD 90,000 mark for the first time. On the major crypto exchange Coinbase, the price reached a high of 89,993.69 US dollars per BTC.
At the beginning of the month, one Bitcoin still cost less than USD 67,000. However, after the crypto-friendly Donald Trump won the US election, BTC took off.
In the past trading week, the asset recorded an increase of around USD 11,700 per BTC. In absolute terms, this was the best weekly rise ever. The start of the week continued this performance: Bitcoin was able to gain more than 10% over the course of the day on Monday, resulting in the best absolute daily gain in its almost 16-year history with a rise of just under USD 8,400.
Bitcoin has now more than doubled since the start of the year. And this performance follows a price increase of 150% in 2023. Other asset classes have been clearly beaten in this respect.
Price driver: national Bitcoin reserves?
One obvious reason for the sharp rise in prices since Donald Trump's election is the prospect of a US national Bitcoin reserve. The Republican announced this as part of his election campaign. For the time being, however, it is only a matter of transferring the 200,000 BTC currently held by the USA, largely as a result of confiscations, into a strategic stock.
However, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has presented a bill that provides for the active purchase of one million Bitcoin over the next five years in order to reduce the national debt in the long term - Blocktrainer.de reported. To date, Trump has not commented on this idea, although he has publicly toyed with the idea of paying off the US's USD 36 trillion debt with Bitcoin.
It remains to be seen if and when the US will establish a strategic Bitcoin stockpile. Lummis expects - provided there is enough support - that it could happen within the first 100 days of Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2024, i.e. by April 29, 2024.
I believe we can get this done with bipartisan support in the first 100 days IF we have the support of the people.
Cynthia Lummis 🦬 (@CynthiaMLummis) November 11, 2024
It is a game changer for the solvency of our nation. Let's put America on sound financial footing and pass the Bitcoin Act! https://t.co/gPIGaUtiQZ-
On the Polymarket betting market, the probability that the Bitcoin reserve will be established by April 29 is currently around 30%.
The developments in the USA are also likely to have aroused great interest among the rulers of other nations. After all, if the United States, as the world's largest economy and the world's leading and reserve currency, is backing Bitcoin, it makes sense to do the same.
The rise in the price of Bitcoin may also be partly due to the fact that other nations want to stock up on the asset before the USA does. The rumor mill is churning accordingly - Blocktrainer.de reported.
Large fortunes are created
The current price increase primarily rewards those who have been around a little longer. In addition to many private individuals, this now also includes small countries.
The Kingdom of Bhutan, for example, which has built up a considerable Bitcoin stock through state mining, now has a BTC stock of more than one billion US dollars for the first time.
This is particularly impressive, as the approximately 12,500 coins held by the Himalayan nation now account for around a third of its annual economic output.
El Salvador, the first nation to declare Bitcoin an official means of payment, also has reason to celebrate. The government's Bitcoin position, which President Nayib Bukele has been building up step by step since September 2021, is now worth more than 500 million US dollars for the first time.
Bukele made a suitable post on the 𝕏 platform yesterday, which almost certainly referred to Bitcoin's new record levels and underpins his visionary status in this regard.
I told you so
- Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) November 11, 2024
However, the largest Bitcoin holder is and remains the US software company MicroStrategy. The 279,420 BTC on the company's balance sheet are now worth around 24 billion US dollars. This means that the company founded by Michael Saylor has roughly doubled the amount invested.
In the course of yesterday's price explosion, MicroStrategy's shares also surpassed the previous high from the "dotcom bubble" in 2000, when the market capitalization peaked at just under USD 18 billion - yesterday it was well over three times as high. The difference is due to the fact that the company has issued several new shares since then.
Just the beginning?
If Bitcoin follows the pattern of past cycles, further price increases can be expected. In the past, BTC has always reached its high between 12 and 18 months after the halving, which took place for the fourth time in April this year.
In addition to the prospect of further falling interest rates, the fact that the institutional adoption of Bitcoin is only now really picking up speed suggests that Bitcoin will become significantly more expensive. Although Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen inflows of USD 3.4 billion in the past four trading days alone, experts agree that pension funds, hedge funds and registered investment advisors (RIAs) are only just getting warmed up.
Take Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, an asset manager that has itself launched an exchange-traded Bitcoin fund. Hougan wrote yesterday on the 𝕏 platform in reference to the soaring Bitcoin price:
Remember that the wave of institutional capital hasn't arrived yet.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO
And to the extent that the nation states should also really get going now, we can expect significantly higher prices for Bitcoin. Because then the entities will rush with vast amounts of capital into an asset that is limited in its total quantity and that few are currently willing to sell for a five-digit price.
Kommentare aus unserem Forum
